Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2014 are shown through a series of figures below. The first figure depicts a series of maps of bottom oxygen concentrations (ml/l) as two-month averages for the region. A time series from the bottom on the coast near one of the OCNMS moorings sited at Cape Elizabeth is shown from the simulation. The model forecasts that hypoxia will develop at this location in early July of 2014. Finally, the climatological cross-section from the Newport Line from Pierce et al, 2012 is compared to the forecast. The forecast projects that the oxygen concentration in the source waters for the upwelling season of 2014 will be lower than the climatology.
Oxygen concentrations are forecasted to be very low this year – lower than 2013. On the Washington shelf, hypoxia is predicted to emerge along the Cape Elizabeth line of the OCNMS moorings in early July. The model has skill in predicting the emergence and severity of hypoxia, though it is biased toward lower oxygen predictions than observed at moorings. This bias is caused by a lack of relaxations in the winds (found to be important in a paper by Adams et al, 2013; Hales et al, 2006) in CFS as well as a bias in the short wave radiation (see 2013, Year in Review).