Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2016 upwelling season. The forecast for 2016 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2016 are shown through a series of figures below. Each panel represents ensemble averaged fields of two month averages for the region.
From the maps, aragonite saturation state, at the surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over much of the year, with the exception of the region surrounding the mouth of the Columbia River. This region is undersaturated at times, and experiences long periods of time below thresholds identified as critical to juvenile oysters.
From the maps, aragonite saturation state, at the bottom is forecasted to be undersaturated over much of the year, with the exception of the spring (May - June), and inner shelf in the fall (November - December).