Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2017 upwelling season. The forecast for 2017 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 2, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2017. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over the modeled region for the entire upwelling season, peaking in mid-summer (July - August). Aragonite saturation then decreases and approaches stressful conditions for oyster larvae (<1.4) by the end of fall (November - December).
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to be undersaturated over most of the modeled region for the entire upwelling season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) and at the end of the fall (November - December).