Forecast Origin Dates
The Fishery Management Council manages fisheries off the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington, for about 119 species of ground fish, salmon, coastal pelagic species, and highly migratory species. The Fishery Management Council has requested that its Ecosystem Plan Development Team provide annual State of the California Current Ecosystem Reports. The reports include observed indicators of environmental conditions in the California Current that affect the productivity and distribution of harvested fish populations.
Using our JSCOPE ocean condition predictions, we can forecast many of these California Current environmental conditions and indicators, including:
- Regional Upwelling Indices which drive local primary production: The wind product reported here is the 8-day Upwelling Index. The average of all three model runs making up the ensemble is plotted as a solid line with the range of ensemble runs shown as a gray cloud around the line.
- Dissolved oxygen levels and hypoxic events
- Ocean conditions relevant to coastal pelagic species and salmon distribution or abundance
Complementary forecasting tools provide forecasts of basin-scale climate indicators:
- Multivariate ENSO Index. The May 2017 CFS forecasts ENSO-neutral conditions are likely in 2017.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The May 2017 CFS forecast suggests a transition to more neutral conditions as the positive magnitude has weakened slightly. CFSv2 prediction suggests neutral PDO phase in the summer and fall of 2017.