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Forecast Origin Dates

J-SCOPE forecast results for the model run beginning in April of 2017 are shown in the first figure. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time periods.

For waters off the Washington coast, the forecast projects that 10-meter integrated chlorophyll will be lower than climatology during the summer upwelling season (May - June, July - August) on the shelf, but will show a relative increase near shore in the fall (September - October, November - December). The relative uncertainty is highest near the shelf break throughout the summer and early fall (May - June, July - August, September - October).

For waters off the Oregon coast, a similar pattern is forecasted: chlorophyll on the shelf is projected to be lower than climatology in early averaged time-periods (May - June, July - August) but higher than climatology in the fall. Offshore chlorophyll is projected to be higher than climatology initially (May - June, July - August) but then approach climatology by late fall (November - December). Relative uncertainty is highest near the shelf-break initially but decreases in the late fall (November - December).

The uncertainty is caused by the differences between the three ensemble members wind forcing, see California Current Indicators.

The modeled region chlorophyll values integrated over the surface 10 meters (in mg/l), and averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December.

The relative uncertainty in percent for the modeled region chlorophyll values integrated over the surface 10 meters (in mg/l), and averaged in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. The relative uncertainty is defined as the standard deviation of the ensemble divided by the mean of the ensemble and is reported as a percentage of the mean.