Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2021 upwelling season. The forecast for 2021 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model, CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2021. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecast to be supersaturated (Ω > 1) for the entire forecast, with saturation states peaking in mid-summer (July - August) and then decreasing to a minimum in late fall (November - December).
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecast to decrease over the course of the summer and fall. Most of the modeled region is forecast to be undersaturated (Ω < 1) for the entire forecast season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington at the beginning (May - June) and end (November - December) of the forecast, and a few isolated inlets in Washington in the middle of the forecast (July - October) that remain supersaturated (Ω > 1).