Year in Review
At the Cape Elizabeth OCNMS mooring in 42 m of water (~47 N), the forecast predicted the onset of hypoxic conditions (<2 mg oxygen / L) on June 21 (January forecast), and May 24 (April forecast). This location observed hypoxia beginning on June 12. The forecast predicted the location would remain hypoxic and develop anoxia in late July through mid-October. The observations show that while this location remained hypoxic, the location never went anoxic. The late upwelling season is when the forecast performed the worst, as previously discussed, due to the failure of the winds to relax and the lack of predictive skill surrounding the fall transition.
Oxygen forecasts (January forecast - teal, April forecast - darker blue) compared to the OCNMS Cape Elizabeth 42m station observations (red).