Forecast Origin Dates
Here, we demonstrate the ability to use short-term (up to nine month) predictions of ocean conditions from J-SCOPE to create a novel forecast of the spatial distribution of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax.
Details of the model can be found in:
Kaplan IC, Williams G, Bond N, Hermann A, and Siedlecki S. In press. "Cloudy with a chance of sardines: forecasting sardine distributions using regional climate models". Fisheries Oceanography.
The model had moderate skill (AUC = 0.67) in predicting 2009 sardine distributions, five to eight months in advance. Preliminary tests indicate that the model also had skill to predict sardine presence in August 2013 (AUC = 0.85) and August 2014 (AUC = 0.96), four to five months in advance. An AUC of 1.0 is ideal, and an AUC of 0.5 is model that performs no better than a coin toss.
The model forecast that in August 2014 the areas with highest probability of sardine presence (or suitable habitat) would be off the Washington and Oregon Coast, with poor habitat off Vancouver Island. In concurrence with this, the August WCVI survey did not detect any sardine off Vancouver Island, while the SWFSC Coastal Pelagic Species Life History Program survey detected sardine off the Columbia River and Oregon. The J-SCOPE projections underlying this were initialized to represent April 1, 2014 (a lead time of over four months), yet AUC for August 2014 was 0.96.