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Forecast Origin Dates

Caption: Probability of sardine presence, for July (left) and August (right) of 2015. These two to three month forecasts are the average of a three-member ensemble, initialized as April 15th, May 1, and May 15th. Due to relatively warm sea surface temperature, the forecasts predict habitat suitable for sardine throughout the region. The exception is low salinity water for which the model expects sardine to be found at more intermediate rather than warm temperatures. This leads to low probability of presence in the Columbia River plume. Methods based on: Kaplan IC, Williams G, Bond N, Hermann A, and Siedlecki S. 2016. "Cloudy with a chance of sardines: forecasting sardine distributions using regional climate models." Fisheries Oceanography 25:1, 15-27.