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Forecast Origin Dates

The Fishery Management Council manages fisheries off the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington, for about 119 species of ground fish, salmon, coastal pelagic species, and highly migratory species. The Fishery Management Council has requested that its Ecosystem Plan Development Team provide annual State of the California Current Ecosystem Reports. The reports include observed indicators of environmental conditions in the California Current that affect the productivity and distribution of harvested fish populations.

Using our JSCOPE ocean condition predictions, here we can forecast many of these California Current environmental conditions and indicators, including:

  • Regional Upwelling Indices, which drive local primary production. The wind product reported here is the 8-day Upwelling Index. The average of all three model runs making up the ensemble are plotted in the solid line with the range of the ensemble runs shown as a gray cloud around that line.

Complementary forecasting tools provide forecasts of basin-scale climate indicators:

  • Multivariate ENSO Index. The April 2016 CFS forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.

  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation The April 2016 CFS forecast suggests a continuation of the positive phase of the PDO conditions into 2016 trending toward more neutral conditions over the summer with a possible reversal in August of 2016.