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Forecast Origin Dates

J-SCOPE forecast results for the model run beginning in January of 2018 are shown in the first figure. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time periods.

For waters off the Washington coast, the forecast projects that 10-meter integrated chlorophyll will be slightly higher than climatology on the shelf but lower than climatology farther offshore at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June). However, later in the upwelling season (July - August), shelf waters will have lower chlorophyll than climatology while offshore waters will approach climatology. The relative uncertainty is highest at the beginning of the forecast when chlorophyll levels are low, but then decreases and remains relatively steady throughout the upwelling season.

For waters off the Oregon coast, chlorophyll on the shelf is projected to be slightly higher than climatology throughout the upwelling season, though this pattern is patchy. Offshore chlorophyll is projected to be lower than climatology at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) but then approach climatology by mid-summer (July - August). Relative uncertainty is highest near the shelf-break in May - June but decreases by mid-summer (July - August).

The uncertainty is caused by the differences between the three ensemble members wind forcing, see California Current Indicators.

The modeled region chlorophyll values integrated over the surface 10 meters (in mg/l), and averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) January - February, March - April, May - June, July - August.

The relative uncertainty in percent for the modeled region chlorophyll values integrated over the surface 10 meters (in mg/l), and averaged in time for (from left to right) January - February, March - April, May - June, July - August. The relative uncertainty is defined as the standard deviation of the ensemble divided by the mean of the ensemble and is reported as a percentage of the mean.