Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in January of 2018 are shown through a series of figures below. In the first figure, each panel represents a two-month ensemble averaged anomalies for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time period.
One bias is known to exist in the model that impacts these forecasted SSTs. The modeled shortwave radiation is known to be too high (see 2013, Year in Review), which can contribute to forecast temperatures being too warm in summer.
For waters off the Washington coast, the forecast projects that SST will be slightly warmer than climatology throughout the upwelling season, but SST is forecasted to be near or slightly cooler than climatology for shelf and offshore waters in March - April. The relative uncertainty is very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.
For the waters off the Oregon coast, the forecast projects that SST will be near climatological throughout the upwelling season, with anomalies peaking for offshore waters in July - August. SST anomalies are forecasted to be near or slightly cooler than climatology in March - April. The relative uncertainty is very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.
The SST was forecast using all three model runs of the ensemble for three point locations where buoys exist, Ćháʔba· off La Push, Washington, NH-10 off Newport, Oregon, and CE042 in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, are shown at the below. All three indicate warmer SSTs than the climatology during the summer upwelling season.
Finally, climatological cross-sections from the Newport Line in Oregon (44°N), as well as the Grays Harbor Line in Washington (47°N), are compared to the forecasted average of the ensemble members. The forecast projects that although SST is projected to be slightly higher than climatology (0-20 meter depth), the subsurface waters are forecasted to have temperatures for the upwelling season of 2018 that are slightly lower than the climatology in both Washington and Oregon.
We note that the NANOOS Climatology App shows that the NDBC buoys along the Washington and Oregon shelf are recording sea surface temperatures nearly equivalent to the long-term averages since the start of 2018.