Forecast Origin Dates
The Fishery Management Council manages fisheries off the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington, for about 119 species of ground fish, salmon, coastal pelagic species, and highly migratory species. The Fishery Management Council has requested that its Ecosystem Plan Development Team provide annual State of the California Current Ecosystem Reports. The reports include observed indicators of environmental conditions in the California Current that affect the productivity and distribution of harvested fish populations.
Using our J-SCOPE ocean condition predictions, we can forecast many of these California Current environmental conditions and indicators, including:
- Regional Upwelling Indices which drive local primary production: The wind product reported here is the 8-day Upwelling Index. The average of all three model runs making up the ensemble is plotted as a solid line with the range of ensemble runs shown as a gray cloud around the line. Positive values indicate upwelling; negative values indicate downwelling.
- Dissolved oxygen levels and hypoxic events.
- Ocean conditions relevant to coastal pelagic species and salmon distribution or abundance.
Complementary forecasting tools provide forecasts of basin-scale climate indicators:
- Multivariate ENSO Index: The April 2020 CFS forecasts ENSO-neutral conditions are favored for the Northern Hemisphere summer 2020 (~60% chance), remaining the most likely outcome through autumn.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The April 2020 CFS forecasts that negative PDO conditions will continue through the summer and fall of 2020.