Forecast Origin Dates
Forecasts are generated using three-member ensemble forecasts of ocean temperature and two-member ensemble averages of the top performing individual statistical forecasting models. Historical analyses (2009 to 2019) indicated the ensemble model has considerable skill in forecasting hake occurrence with an average annual area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.85, where the AUC ranges from 0 to 1 with values near 1 indicating higher skill and a value of 0.5 indicating the model performs no better than a coin toss.
Details of methods used to produce forecasts can be found in the peer-reviewed journal article: Malick, M.J. et al. (2020) Environmentally Driven Seasonal Forecasts of Pacific Hake Distribution. Frontiers in Marine Science. Article #578490. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.578490