Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in January of 2021 are shown through a series of figures below. In the first figure, each panel represents two-month ensemble averaged anomalies for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time period.
One bias is known to exist in the model that impacts these forecast SSTs. The modeled shortwave radiation is known to be too high (see 2013, Year in Review), which can contribute to forecast temperatures being too warm in summer.
For waters off the Washington and Oregon coast, the forecast projects that SST will be near climatological at the beginning of the forecast and upwelling season, and slight warm anomalies will develop as the upwelling season progresses (July-August) mostly offshore of the shelf break. The relative uncertainty is very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.
The SST was forecast using all three model runs of the ensemble for three point locations where buoys exist, Ćháʔba· off La Push, Washington, NH-10 off Newport, Oregon, and CE042 in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, are shown below. All three indicate near climatological SSTs during most of the summer upwelling season.
Finally, climatological cross-sections from the Newport Line in Oregon (44°N), as well as the Grays Harbor Line in Washington (47°N), are compared to the forecast average of the ensemble members. The forecast projects that although SST is projected to be near climatological, this warm anomaly does not extend down into the water column along the Grays Harbor Line or the Newport Line. In fact, the subsurface waters are forecast to have temperatures for the upwelling season of 2021 that are slightly cooler than climatology inshore of the 100 meter isobath on the Washington line and extending over the entire shelf but limited to the upper 100 meters off of Oregon.
We note that the NANOOS Climatology App shows that the NDBC buoys along the Washington and Oregon shelf are recording sea surface temperatures near or slightly warmer than the long-term averages since the start of 2021.