Forecast Origin Dates
Overview
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2016 upwelling season. The forecast for 2016 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2016 with a full carbon model (included DIC and TA). The TA and DIC fields are then used to calculate Ω using CO2sys.
The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2016, from ensemble model run #2 initialized on April 15. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab above.
Surface Fields
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2016 are shown through a series of figures below. Each panel represents ensemble averaged fields of two month averages for the region.
From the maps, aragonite saturation state, at the surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over much of the year, with the exception of the region surrounding the mouth of the Columbia River. This region is undersaturated at times, and experiences long periods of time below thresholds identified as critical to juvenile oysters.
The modeled region surface aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions. Stressful conditions for juvenile oysters (Ω=1.3) is outlined by the pink contour.
Bottom Fields
From the maps, aragonite saturation state, at the bottom is forecasted to be undersaturated over much of the year, with the exception of the spring (May - June), and inner shelf in the fall (November - December).
The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions. Stressful conditions for juvenile oysters (Ω=1.3) is outlined by the pink contour.
Severity Index
In development.