J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2019 are shown through a series of figures below. In the first figure, each panel represents two-month ensemble averaged anomalies for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time period.

One bias is known to exist in the model that impacts these forecasted SSTs. The modeled shortwave radiation is known to be too high (see 2013, Year in Review), which can contribute to forecast temperatures being too warm in summer.

For waters off the Washington and Oregon coast, the forecast projects that SST will be slightly warmer than climatology throughout the upwelling season. The peak SST anomaly is forecast to occur for offshore waters in September - October. The relative uncertainty is highest in May - June, but still very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.

The SST was forecast using all three model runs of the ensemble for three point locations where buoys exist, Ćháʔba· off La Push, Washington, NH-10 off Newport, Oregon, and CE042 in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, are shown below. All three indicate slightly warmer SSTs than the climatology during the summer upwelling season and into the fall months.

Finally, climatological cross-sections from the Newport Line in Oregon (44°N), as well as the Grays Harbor Line in Washington (47°N), are compared to the forecasted average of the ensemble members. The forecast projects shallow subsurface waters (~0 - 250 m) to have temperatures for the 2019 upwelling season that are slightly higher than climatology in both Washington and Oregon, while deeper waters are near climatology. The temperature anomalies are projected to be warmer relative to climatology and extend slightly deeper into the water at the Newport Line (0-280 m) than at the Grays Harbor Line (0-220 m).

We note that the NANOOS Climatology App shows that the NDBC buoys along the Washington and Oregon shelf are recording sea surface temperatures warmer than the long-term averages since the start of 2019.