Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the model run beginning in April of 2022 are shown in the first figure. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time periods.
The forecast projects that 10-meter integrated chlorophyll for the early upwelling season (May - June) will exhibit a high degree of spatial variability, but overall it will be near climatology, in Washington and lower than climatology for Oregon shelf waters. However, there are patches of higher than climatology chlorophyll at the mouth of the Columbia River and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Later in the upwelling season (July - August), stretches of lower than climatology chlorophyll persist and strengthen in waters near the shelf break in Washington and Oregon coast, while nearshore waters in Washington and northern Oregon are near climatology; patches of higher than climatology chlorophyll persist near the mouth of the Columbia River and Strait of Juan de Fuca. The relative uncertainty over the continental shelf is typically low to moderate (<30%) over the upwelling season, though it increase slightly from earlier (May - June) to later (July - August) in the upwelling season.
The uncertainty is caused by the differences between the three ensemble members. One way of looking at the physical differences in the models is to see the spread in the wind forcing, see California Current Indicators. The ensemble members disagree the most from the beginning of the forecast through the fall.