Forecast Origin Dates


The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2017 upwelling season. The forecast for 2017 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (January 5, January 15, January 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.

The forecasts simulate conditions in 2017. The pH and aragonite saturation (Ω) fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA PMEL.

The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2017, from ensemble model run #2 initialized on January 15. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab on the left.

Surface Fields

In development.

Bottom Fields

From the maps, aragonite saturation state, at the bottom is forecasted to be undersaturated over much of the upwelling season, with the exception of the spring (May - June), and completely undersaturated by the end of the summer (September - October).

The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) January - February, March - April, May - June, and July - August. An aragonite saturation state of 1.0 is the boundary between undersaturated (corrosive) and saturated conditions. Stressful conditions for juvenile oysters (Ω=1.3) is outlined by the pink contour.

Severity Index

In development.