Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2018 upwelling season. The forecast for 2018 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2018. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over the entire forecast, though it is expected to decrease over the fall, with saturation states reaching a minimum in November - December.
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to decrease over the course of the summer upwelling season and into the fall, with a slight increase toward the end of the forecast (November - December). In Washington, nearshore areas are forecasted to be supersaturated at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) and again at the end of the forecast (November - December), while the rest of the shelf area remains undersaturated. In Oregon, most of the modeled region is forecasted to be undersaturated for the entire forecast season, with the exception of a few isolated coastal locations in May - June and November - December.