Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the model run beginning in April of 2018 are shown in the first figure. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time periods.
For waters off the Washington coast, the forecast projects that 10-meter integrated chlorophyll will approach climatology on the shelf but be higher than climatology farther offshore at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June). However, later in the upwelling season (July - August), shelf waters will have higher chlorophyll than climatology while offshore waters will approach climatology. The relative uncertainty is high at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June), but decreases by the end of the upwelling season (July - August).
For waters off the Oregon coast, chlorophyll on the shelf is projected to be lower than climatology at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) but higher than climatology at the end of the upwelling season (July - August). Offshore chlorophyll is projected to approach climatology throughout the upwelling season (May - August). Relative uncertainty is highest near the shelf-break in May - June but decreases by July - August.
The uncertainty is caused by the differences between the three ensemble members wind forcing, see California Current Indicators.