Forecast Origin Dates
Overview
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2018 upwelling season. The forecast for 2018 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2018. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2018, from ensemble model run 3 initialized on April 25. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab above.
Surface Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over the entire forecast, though it is expected to decrease over the fall, with saturation states reaching a minimum in November - December.
The modeled region surface aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω=1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the beige contour line.
Bottom Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to decrease over the course of the summer upwelling season and into the fall, with a slight increase toward the end of the forecast (November - December). In Washington, nearshore areas are forecasted to be supersaturated at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) and again at the end of the forecast (November - December), while the rest of the shelf area remains undersaturated. In Oregon, most of the modeled region is forecasted to be undersaturated for the entire forecast season, with the exception of a few isolated coastal locations in May - June and November - December.
The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω=1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the beige contour line.
Severity Index
In development.