Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2022 upwelling season. The forecast for 2022 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (January 5, January 15, January 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model, CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2022. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using CO2SYS (Pelletier et al., 2007), based on modeled dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecast to increase over the spring and into the upwelling season (May - August), with saturation states maximized in mid-summer (July - August).
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecast to decrease over the course of the spring and summer. Most of the modeled region is forecast to be undersaturated for the entire forecast season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington and Oregon at the beginning of the forecast (January - April), and some isolated coastal locations in Washington during the upwelling season (May - August).