Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the model run beginning in January of 2022 are shown in the first figure. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time periods.
For waters off the Washington and Oregon coast, the forecast projects that 10-meter integrated chlorophyll will be lower than climatology, with exceptions of higher than climatology chlorophyll near the mouths of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Columbia River at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June). Later in the upwelling season (July - August), the chlorophyll values near the outflow from the Columbia River and the Strait of Juan de Fuca, including the region associated with the Juan de Fuca Eddy, will continue to increase above climatology, while the remainder of the continental shelves and offshore areas are near or slightly lower than climatology. The relative uncertainty is highest at the beginning of the forecast when chlorophyll levels are low. Overall uncertainty is lower during the upwelling season, but it still varies spatially with uncertainty generally lower nearshore and higher around the shelf break.
The uncertainty is caused by the differences between the three ensemble members wind forcing, see California Current Indicators.