Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2017 are shown through a series of figures below. In the first figure, each panel represents a two-month average for the region averaged over three model runs of the ensemble. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The panels directly under the anomaly plots depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time period.
One bias is known to exist in the model that impacts these forecasted SSTs. The modeled shortwave radiation is known to be too high (see 2013, Year in Review), which can contribute to forecast temperatures being too warm during summer.
For waters off the Washington coast, the forecast projects that SST will be slightly warmer than climatology initially (May - June), and SST anomalies will continue to increase and then peak in late summer (July - August). In the fall, the SST is near climatology (September - October) with slightly cooler shelf water toward the end of the season (November - December). The relative uncertainty is very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.
For the waters off the Oregon coast, the forecast projects that SST will be slightly warmer than climatology initially (May - June), and SST anomalies will continue to increase and then peak in late summer (July - August). Throughout the fall, SST stays near climatology (September - October, November - December). The relative uncertainty is very low (<10%) for the entire forecast.
The SST was forecast using all three model runs of the ensemble for three point locations where buoys exist, Ćháʔba· off La Push, Washington, NH-10 off Newport, Oregon, and CE042 in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, are shown at the bottom of the page. All three indicate warmer SSTs than the climatology during the summer upwelling season.
Finally, climatological cross-sections from the Newport Line in Oregon (44°N), as well as the Grays Harbor Line in Washington (47°N), are compared to the forecasted average of the ensemble members. The forecast projects that the temperatures for the upwelling season of 2017 will be slightly higher than the climatology and extend down to over 200 meters depth below the surface covering much of the shelf in both Washington and Oregon.
We note that the NANOOS Climatology App shows that the NDBC buoys along the Washington and Oregon shelf are recording sea surface temperatures nearly equivalent to the long-term averages since the start of 2017.